My "Quest"

In the honor of the recently blacklisted Zeejustin and his poker quests, I have decided to take on my own quest. I am doing this mainly to profit, but also to change things up and bring back some excitement to my on-line poker playing. Since I have been getting so damn unlucky lately, I think it might be good to re-kindle the fire inside...

So here's what I want to do:

The Plan

I am going to buy-in to Party Poker's ministeps... 50 times. I plan on buying in at the lowest step (step 1 costs $5+1) and playing every one of my step 1s until I play any step 2s. Then I will play all my step 2s before I play any step 3s, and so on... Here's my thinking:

The total cost to me to play in 50 1st step minis will be $300. If I cash in at least 1 step 5, I am guaranteed a minimum of $200 (for a net loss of $100). If I finish 4th, I break even and 3rd through 1st place is a profit.

Here's my rationale:

My ROI on single table SNGs over the last 12 months is approximately 37%. What do I have to show for it? A bunch of little cash-outs usually months apart and never more than $1000.

I finish ITM 42% of the time (top three) and finish in the top two 30% of the time. After step 1, the top two finishers move on to the next step. What's great is 3rd through 5th place usually get to play the same step over again, so finishing in the top 5 gets me another shot to finish in the top 2.

Here's how I make money:

I will need to win just 20% of the step 1s I play (I figure to finish 2nd through 5th in roughly half the steps I play in considering my SNG record meaning I can count on playing approximately 97 step 1s before I have either advanced to step 2 or been eliminated alltogether) meaning I will earn 19 step 2 entries.

After step 1, since the top two advance in each step thereafter, considering my SNG record I can expect to play in 37 step 2s and finish in the top two 11 times, advancing to step 3 with 11 entries.

In step 3, you have to finish in 3rd or 4th to replay step 3, so my odds go down a bit, but finishers 5th and 6th replay step 2 and 7th and 8th replay step 1 so that should even it out (It's 1:00 AM as I write this and I don't even know where to begin in order to derrive the exact formula to calculate my odds of dropping from step 3 to step 1 and then working my way back to step 3, but you get the point) I should advance to step 4 no less than 6 times.

In step 4, it goes back to 3rd through 5th replaying the step, 6th and 7th going back to step 3, 8th going back to step 2 and 9th going all the way back to step 1. With 6 entries, I should be able to play in 10 step 4s, advancing in 3 of them.

That leaves me with 3 opportunities to finish in the top 5 of step 5.

Of course, variance is a bitch and my egotistical mindset tells me that I am underestimating my abilities. I would like to believe my odds to move on will be closer to 40%, giving me at least 7 shots at cashing in step 5, but this is just a conservative estimate using hard numbers from the last 12 months of play.

Worst case scenario, I should break even.

Best case scenario, I win $3,500 or more (1st place in step 5 is $2,000!).

I would like to start this "quest" ASAP but with the WSOP comming up next week, it will most likely have to wait.

I am curious what your opinions are. Any suggestions? Think I'm crazy? I'd love to hear it...

~NBA~