Friday, May 29, 2009

Non-Bracelet Winners Prop Bet

So as you all know, the 40th edition of the WSOP kicked off Wednesday with the Casino employees’ event. However, most consider the $40k anniversary NLH event to be the beginning. On Wednesday BigHeeb91 and I had a draft where we each took 10 people who have never won a bracelet and whoever accumulates the most bracelets wins. Terms of the bet have been decided but since we got so many prop bets flying around these days I can't remember what the terms are exactly. Below are our teams.


Big Heeb's Team

Pick                 Player
1 Patrik Antonius
2 Justin Bonomo
3 Gus Hansen
4 Michael Mizrachi
5 Nam Le
6 Gavin Smith
7                    Justin Smith (Boosted J)
8 Chad Brown
9 Steve Gross (GBoro780)
10 Ivan Demidov

Stewman's Team

Pick                  Player
1                    Betrand Grospellier (Elky)
2                    Michael Binger
3                    Andy Bloch
4                    Isaac Baron (Westmenlo AA)
5                    Shannon Shorr
6                    Yvgeniy Timoshenko
7                    Tom Dwan
8                    Søren Kongsgaard
9                    Matt Hawrilenko (Hoss TBF)
10                  Adam Junglen

So after day 1 of the 40k event BigHeeb has Nam Le and Justin Bonomo left and I have 
Adam Junglen. We decidee to throw another $20 on if any of our players make the FT. 


In analyzing the teams, I got to say that I really like my chances. Let's break down the teams a little further. 
















BigHeeb
I threw the kid a bone and gave him the first pick because he claimed to be a dog in this bet. I agreed because basically he is and he proved it with his first pick. He opens with...

Patrik Antonius 
This was a donktactular pick of epic proportions. Patrik hardly plays tournaments which was evident by his no show for the $40k event. Even with being in Vegas right now instead of Monaco, he decided not to play. Why should he when he makes much more playing the nose bleed stakes on FTP. My guess he will play 5-7 events and will not win a bracelet. 

Justin Bonomo
My faith albeit temporarily, was restored with Heeb's 2nd pick of ZeeJustin, Justin Bonomo. After coming off his first major live victory at the Caesar's WSOP Circuit event and a televised final table last year again Erick "E-Dog" Lindgren, Justin is poised to capture his first bracelet. He plays all the games great which is another bonus. He was number two on my board which proves even more to me that Heeb may not be a donk after all...

Gus Hansen
That was my feeling till his third pick of the Great Dane himself Gus Hansen. Now as you loyal readers out there know, Gus Hansen is my favorite player in the world. His burst onto the scene five to six years ago has been unmatched and he completely changed the world of NLH by ushering a wave of complete and unexplainable aggression that bewildered the old guard. He has remained consistent in tourneys while changing his game. I love this guy as a poker player but I hate him for my team and I'll tell you why! THE GUY PLAYS HARDLY ANY WSOP EVENTS. He shows up late every year because his primary residence is in Monaco and doesn't care it seems about winning a bracelet. These days he prefers the high limit action on FTP anyways. Too prove my point even more, Gus is not even in Vegas right now. He is in Paris at Roland Garros watching the French Open and sweating his horse Rafael Nadal which he has a reported $900,000 bet on to win the title. Good bet since he is pretty much a sure thing these days. Who knows when Gus will arrive but when he does, he still won't play much tourney poker, instead opting for the juicy games in Bobby's room.

Michael Mizrachi
The Grinder has never won a bracelet which is surprising to practically everyone since he rack up a ton of tournament titles over a few year stretch back in the day. Well that was back in the day, present day Grinder has had no huge finishes in a few years besides his recent 2nd to ZeeJustin at the WSOP Circuit event at Caesars and I believe a PLO final table last year where he went in as CL and busted out I think 2nd or 3rd. He is hungry and I'm sure determined but his history at the WSOP is poor and I expect that to stay the same. 

Nam Le
What can be said about this consistent finisher. For NLH events, I'd take him any day but that is about it. He is limited in what he plays and with no wins yet I don't see this changing this year but he could sneak a 2 or 3k win in.

Gavin Smith
After a decent 2007 WSOP, Gavin "The Caveman" Smith had a horrendous 2008 WSOP. I don't think he even cashed in something like 30+ tournaments. He does play more than NLH but I don't think particular strong really in any. I look for him to cash this year but not take down any bracelets. 

Justin Smith (Boosted J)
Many may not know of this 21 year old wunderkind but he has been tearing up online and in live tourneys that he has been able to play. Great pick here by BigHeeb. BoostedJ plays all the games and plays them well. He is a regular in the 8-game mixed action on stars playing against the likes of Greenstein and Negreanu and coming out a winner. I expect big things from him this year but I think he could either have a masdenesque year or nothing at all but good pick nonetheless. 

Chad Brown
This former toga wearing actor is a consistent performer and great in the mix games, especially stud events. I was going to take him with a late pick but Heeb snatched him up before me. I don't expect him to win a NLH bracelet but could sneak a stud or draw event win. 

Steve "GBoro780" Gross
This kid has been tearing up on-line poker over the past year. I think he is ranked #1 or 2 for on-line mtt's. He is playing more live events and has decent results. However, most of these on-line giants don't seem to have much live success right off the bat and I think this will be the same for him. 

Ivan Demidov
A member of the original November 9 and the runner up finisher to Peter Eastgate last year in the main event, Ivan Demidov is poised to take his first bracelet this year. I wouldn't count him out in NLH but probably all the other events. I don't know much about his  mixed game abilities mainly because I have never heard of any exploits. Even though the Russians dominated last year, I don't see this happening this year. I expect a bagel for Demidov.

Stewman
Betrand Grospellier (Elky)
This former professional video gamer has turned the poker world upside down with his fearless and aggressive play over the past 2 years. With multiple huge WPT and EPT wins plus multiple final tables in other events, Elky is by far the hottest player on the circuit. I can't understand a word this guy says but to me he was the number one pick in the draft and I got him second overall, thanks HeebDonk!

Michael Binger
This guy is smart, how smart, PHD candidate in theoretical physics from Stanford smart. You know what else he knows, NLH. 2007 WSOP was Bingers year with I think 7 cashes which was a record that lasted 1 year but still very impressive. He also final tabled the 2006 WSOP ME. He has prelim wins at wpt's and high finishes in other tournaments. I think he was a top 5 pick and I got him 4th overall. Watch his brother Nick also, he can play a little poker himself.

Andy Bloch
Besides wearing that ridiculous cowboy hat, I see nothing wrong with the way he plays poker. With heartbreak in the inaugural Horse event losing to the late great Chip Reese in at the time, the longest WSOP final table, he bounced back and last year finished 2nd to Nenad Medic in the opening PLH event. This guy is long overdue to have a major victory and no better place to do it than the WSOP. I think he is what Phil Mickelson used to be in golf. The top guy to never win a bracelet.

Isaac Baron
I am usually never high on on-line guys winning a bracelet in their first WSOP (this might be his second but first full one since he turned 21 last July) but if anyone can break that history, it is Westmenlo AA. The former OPOY and multiple EPT final tableists will at least make a final table this year if not win a bracelet. Very high on him out of the on-line contingent. 

Shannon Shorr
The guy with the hot porn star sounding girl's name (Thanks for that WCP) has been one of pokers most consistent performers since he burst onto the scene at the Aussie Millions back in 2006. He had second place finish last year in a NLH event and is looking to improve one spot this year. He has had great results at the Bellagio, hopefully he can repeat that success at the Rio.

Yvgeniy Timoshenko (Jovial Gent)
With his recent results of winning the WPT championship in April and an APPT win earlier this year. Yvgeniy is looking to continue his recent success. I said I expect Russians not to do well this year, well except for Yvgeniy because of two reasons. He is Ukrainian and has lived in Washington State since he was 10 and is probably a citizen by now. With over $3mil in career earnings, this number should increase.

Tom Dwan
Most people including Heeb think he is only a high stakes NLH/PLO player and for the most part that is right. However, he had two 8th place finishes last year in mixed events which is why I picked him. He will play the large buy-in events, especially the mix games with smaller fields. His versatility in playing other games is his appeal to me. 

Søren Kongsgaard
I don't know much about this kid except that he is a Scandi who has dominated the EPT for the past year with I think a win and multiple cashes including a few final tables. Out of everything I have read in my research, his name came up over and over again about making a splash this year. I hesitated in taking him because he is from Europe and they usually come over late to the WSOP but I think because of the $40k event being at the beginning, many of them will come early and play more events. Expect this name not to be unknown to US audiences after this year. 

Matt Hawrilenko (Hoss TBF)
One of the world’s best limit hold'em players and probably my most surprising pick, Matt Hawrilenko recently displayed some prowess in other forms of poker during the recent SCOOP events on PokerStars. I expect him to go far in all the limit events and the high buy-in events which is another factor in selecting him. Hopefully he plays a lot of events, he has been known not to be in the past.   

Adam Junglen
Originally very high on my list, I dropped him down after realizing he only plays NLH. This is his first WSOP and man can this kid play. After recently moving to Vegas he is ready to sink his teeth into the WSOP. Negreanu was so high on this kid that he asked him to be part of his poker training site, PokerVT. With numerous overseas victories and final tables I wouldn't be shocked with him taking down a NLH. He has said he will try some plo and plo8 but don't expect anything significant.  

Overall I think the biggest weakness both teams posses is the fact that a majority of players do not play all the games or play them well. I tried to focus my team on players who play all the events but of course couldn't do that with all my picks. It wouldn't surprise me if none of our players win a bracelet as they are hard to come by these days but if I had to pick a favorite, I would go with my team. I have two predictions on the outcome. Either we both get zero bracelets or I win two and Heeb wins one.

 

 

 

3 comments:

BigHeeb91 said...

obv ship it. 1 event = 1 win. jeez you're a donkey.

Stewman said...

Ah BigHeeb(NBA)obviously has no idea. ZeeJustin busted 4th, no bracelet donkfather!

Stewman said...

Boy was I wrong on this, a Ruskie wins the 40k event